Phoenix Suns: A Contender or A Time Bomb?

In a league where championship aspirations reign supreme, the Phoenix Suns find themselves at a crossroads. Despite a roster boasting two top-12 players in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and a newly acquired star in Bradley Beal, many are questioning the Suns’ legitimacy as a championship contender. ESPN projects them fifth in the Western Conference, and oddsmakers have them at a modest 46-win projection—teetering on the edge of play-in territory. So how is it that a team with so much talent and potential is being overlooked? The answer lies in a combination of financial limitations, roster structure, and concerns about leadership.

All-In Gamble: The High Risk of Trading for Stars

When the Suns traded for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, they effectively mortgaged their future. Draft picks were shipped away, leaving the franchise with limited avenues to improve under the league’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). The CBA now severely restricts teams that exceed the salary cap, making it nearly impossible for Phoenix to acquire significant talent in the future. If the Suns falter this season, their only viable path forward might involve trading one of their star players.

With Durant only having one year left on his contract after this season, the Suns could face the tough decision of dealing him while they can still get something in return. However, Durant’s trade value at 36 years old, with a history of injuries, is limited. If they truly wanted to rebuild, trading Booker would yield a better return, but that would be a massive decision for the franchise.

The Fourth Quarter Problem

Last season, the Suns were decent defensively, ranking 12th overall, but their late-game struggles were glaring. Phoenix ranked dead last in fourth-quarter offense and 22nd on defense. Teams like the Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets performed better in crunch time—a shocking stat for a team with such elite talent.

Injuries played a significant role in their struggles, with Beal missing time early in the season, forcing Booker to play point guard. While Booker thrives next to a traditional point guard, such as Chris Paul or Ricky Rubio, he’s not naturally suited to that role. This misalignment contributed to the Suns’ inability to close out games effectively. Even Durant expressed his frustration with the offense, feeling marginalized within a system built around pick-and-rolls.

Enter Tyus Jones: A Glimmer of Hope?

The Suns’ fortunes could change with the acquisition of Tyus Jones, one of the league’s most efficient role-player point guards. Jones, known for his impeccable assist-to-turnover ratio, has been a consistent performer for six years straight. Despite his 6’1″ frame, which presents challenges on defense, his addition provides much-needed stability in the backcourt.

Jones took a one-year, minimum contract to join the Suns, a rare bargain for a team so financially constrained. This acquisition is huge for Phoenix, as it allows Booker to shift back to his natural position and focus on what he does best: scoring. With Jones handling the point guard duties, Booker, Beal, and Durant can now operate more freely within the offense.

Coaching Changes and New Leadership

Alongside roster adjustments, the Suns also made a major coaching change. After being swept in the first round of the playoffs last season, the team fired head coach Frank Vogel. It was an unsurprising move, especially after Bradley Beal refused to shake Vogel’s hand during the postseason—a clear signal of internal discord.

In Vogel’s place, the Suns hired Mike Budenholzer, a coach with a proven track record. Budenholzer guided the Milwaukee Bucks to an NBA Championship just three years ago and has a history of regular-season success. He even led a Hawks team featuring Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, and Jeff Teague to the top seed in the Eastern Conference. With a coach who knows how to win in the regular season and manage star talent, the Suns’ new offensive schemes could better suit Durant’s preferences.

Durant’s frustration with the previous coaching system was well-documented, as he felt relegated to a corner role far too often. Budenholzer’s systems have historically utilized stars more effectively, which could result in a more harmonious offense that plays to the strengths of Phoenix’s top players.

The Question of Leadership: Is Booker Ready?

One of the most critical issues facing the Suns is the question of leadership. Kevin Durant, by his own admission, is not a natural leader. “I’m not a leader. I’m bad at saying stand behind me and follow me,” Durant once said during his time with the Golden State Warriors. This sentiment underscores the need for someone else on the Suns to take charge—enter Devin Booker.

If the Suns are to overcome their perceived lack of identity and leadership, Booker must take the reins, both on and off the court. Last year, Charles Barkley criticized the Suns, saying they had no identity and no leadership. While some viewed this as an unfair critique, Durant’s own statements seem to support Barkley’s point. Booker needs to step up in a way he hasn’t before, not just as a scorer but as a vocal leader.

The Consequences of Failure

If Phoenix doesn’t succeed this season, the ramifications could be catastrophic. Another early playoff exit, or worse, another sweep, could result in Durant demanding a trade. Given his expiring contract, he would have significant leverage. If Durant leaves, Bradley Beal would become Booker’s primary teammate, with no draft picks left to trade for help. This scenario would likely trigger a full-scale rebuild around Booker, but that’s something he may not be willing to endure.

Booker has already experienced the lean years with the Suns, and after reaching the Finals in 2021, he undoubtedly expected to remain competitive. The thought of starting over in the middle of his prime could push him to seek a trade as well. Should that happen, the only logical trade partner would be the Houston Rockets, who hold the Suns’ future draft picks. The Rockets could offer those picks back to Phoenix in exchange for Booker, enabling the Suns to initiate a proper rebuild.

Conclusion: Boom or Bust

The Phoenix Suns are one of the most intriguing teams heading into the 2024 season. With immense talent but looming questions about leadership, durability, and roster construction, they are either poised for a deep playoff run or on the brink of disaster. If Booker can elevate his game and become the leader the team needs, and if Durant, Beal, and Jones gel under Budenholzer’s system, the Suns could shock everyone. However, if they falter, the future could become bleak very quickly, leading to a messy breakup and a potential rebuild.

Only time will tell if Phoenix’s gamble will pay off.